By: BUHARI HABIBU
Before 2015, investment and interest in Nigeria’s agricultural sector were quite low. This was due to the low profitability of crop production, so most prospective and potential farmers preferred to buy grains that were mostly imported from foreign countries. It was cheaper to buy grains in the market than to grow them. At that time, the national borders were open and cheaper grains flowed freely into the country.
In 2015, the Buhari administration closed the borders and stopped the importation of maize, rice, soybeans, and other crops. This led to a surge in the prices of grains due to lower local production and higher demand. Consequently, middlemen and farmers began hoarding grains to increase demand and justify higher prices. Between the harvest period and the peak of the following rainy season, prices of some grains rose by as much as 250%, making many middlemen and farmers suddenly wealthy. Unfortunately, this newfound affluence also attracted bandits, leading to the kidnapping of wealthy farmers for huge ransom payments running into hundreds of millions.
The rising demand for grains encouraged many Nigerians to take up crop production as either a primary or secondary source of income. Those who started early made significant profits due to the high demand for agricultural produce. This triggered two main systems.
The first was a pro-investment system, which renewed citizens’ interest in a previously neglected enterprise. More people trooped into crop farming, and previously uncultivated lands became productive. The competition for farmland, especially in northern Nigeria became intensified. Within five to six years, farmland prices in some parts of the country increased by 400% to 600%. Similarly, the cost of renting farmland rose sharply; lands once rented for free began to attract exorbitant prices. In some regions, a hectare of farmland in safer zones near urban centers cost up to ₦500,000. The sector became vibrant, with massive local production of various crops, but this also led to inflation in price of food. Farmers gained social respect as many became wealthy. Almost all refuse dumps in parts of the north were evacuated and moved to farmlands for use as manure to maximise yield.
The second system favoured hoarding of crop produce. Individuals began buying grains to store them until prices increased or to create artificial scarcity. Wealthy businessmen, politicians and civil servants joined this trend; some by engaging directly in farming, others by stockpiling grains after harvest. Many constructed large warehouses along major highways and in rural areas to store grains and release them only when prices rose, earning massive profits. This created a destructive pattern where prices kept rising whenever a slight increase in demand was observed.
This system persisted until a major event in 2023, when President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidies. This caused national inflation that affected the prices of grains, leading to a multi-fold increase in the cost of all crops. The inflation triggered hunger nationwide, putting immense pressure on the government.
To address these challenges, the government introduced several policies in 2024 to ease consumer suffering. One major step was reopening the borders to allow grain importation. In July 2024, the government announced a 150-day import waiver on essential food items, including husked brown rice, maize and wheat, under its Accelerated Stabilisation and Advancement Plan (ASAP). Imported grains were supplied to large industries such as poultry feed mills, beverage factories, and breweries, creating surplus and drastically reducing local demand.
However, these policies led to an unexpected crash in the prices of almost all farm produce, including tomatoes, peppers, and vegetables. Within months, profit margins for most crops became negative. Those who had hoarded grains experienced huge losses, especially for rice and maize.
This situation influenced farmers’ crop choices in 2025. Many small-scale farmers avoided maize and shifted to other crops like soybeans, vegetables, carrots, cabbage, cucumber, tomatoes and peppers, believing their prices would remain stable as government is not likely to create policies that will reduce their prices. Unfortunately, this proved false as the price crash affected all crops, hitting perishable ones the hardest. For most crops, many farmers lost between 20–60% of their production costs at harvest.
The confusion deepened with rising fertilizer, agrochemical, and labour costs. Some farmers abandoned their fields because they could not afford fertilizer. Climate change added to the problem through low rainfall, late rain onset, inconsistent rain patterns, and flooding, further reducing agricultural yields and profitability.
These experiences have demoralised many active and potential farmers, who may abandon farming in subsequent years. Without prompt government intervention to stabilise local crop production, the number of farmers and level of agricultural investment could drastically decline. The sacrifices Nigerians endured during the hunger and hardship under Buhari’s agricultural reforms would be in vain if the progress achieved is not sieved from the problems. The success should be preserved and improved upon, while the challenges addressed.
If farming becomes unprofitable again, unemployment will increase, and living conditions will worsen. The surge in grain prices in 2023 severely affected poultry production because of the high cost of feed, forcing many poultry farmers out of business. Although grain prices have since fallen, poultry feed costs remain high, and the sector has yet to recover.
Crop and poultry farming are among the most viable and profitable businesses in Nigeria, offering quick returns on investment. If these sectors collapse, many Nigerians will lose their livelihoods, and investors will lack safe areas for capital deployment. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), over 60% of Nigerian households are involved in crop production, and other sources indicate about 42% of the population participates in poultry production. In 2023 alone, the poultry sector lost about ₦3 trillion, primarily due to the high cost of feed—mainly maize. Importation-driven agricultural policies may boost short-term availability but will ultimately reduce local crop production and, by extension, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). They also channel the nation’s wealth, labour and assets into strengthening the agricultural systems of exporting countries. The present agricultural system is no longer profitable enough to sustain farmers’ basic livelihoods, with rising living costs far outpacing their income from farming.
Now, the government has an opportunity to control the grain market using the fear it has instilled in stakeholders. Authorities must enforce and maintain a reasonable price range for grains, ensuring the lower limit allows farmers to make sustainable profits while the upper limit protects consumers from hunger and hardship. Although price regulation in Nigeria is challenging, the threat of border reopening can serve as a strategic tool to prevent arbitrary price hikes, whether caused by artificial manipulation or genuine market forces. The government should focus on balanced policies that protect the interests of all stakeholders, including the farmers, consumers, and businesses alike.
Policies should not expose only one group, such as farmers or consumers, to the consequences of unbalanced decisions. Within a period of ten years (2015 to 2025), Nigerians have witnessed three major events in the crop production sector: the first was a non-viable sector in 2015; the second was a highly viable sector that everyone was interested in; and now, the third, in 2025, in which the sector is dying and investors are crying. May we never return to the non-viable sector that existed before 2015, when the sector was dying and decomposing. Amin.
Dr. Habibu is a lecturer with Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna State and can be reached via buharihabibu@rocketmail.com
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